Non Governmental Intelligence Agency
Introduction In war, each opponent’s effectiveness is judged not only on its military capabilities but on its ability to achieve overall objectives in multiple areas. This scrutiny has been sorely lacking in previous examinations of the overall effectiveness of the terrorist group Al-Qa’ida (AQ). Part of the contributing factor for this has been the media’s tendency to credit AQ with any and all terror related incidents thereby attributing power and means to the terrorists that are non-existent. Despite not exercising direct operational control over the media, AQ is nonetheless well served as the media’s laziness and failure to do proper investigative journalism enhances the terror group’s Information Operation (IO) campaigns. AQ’s main tactic is to use perceived threats to generate fear. It desperately needs the media to craft and deliver that message. Below is the definition of terrorism that sums up this particular view: “Terrorism is intended to strike psychological fear into the hearts of their intended victims, whether that is a specific group of people or a larger audience, and to affect a change of the targeted group”.[1] Although AQ has left much destruction and death in its wake, the movement has failed to accomplish its stated goals. This paper will examine four distinct areas where AQ has not succeeded. To judge whether or not a tactical objective was achieved, one first has to look at the operational goal behind the objective. Given the media’s propensity to label any AQ terrorist operation a success, this critical analysis is provided to determine the actual end state of the mission. The World Trade Center (WTC) was always an attractive terrorist target due to its location, its symbolic nature as an American engineering marvel and its recognizability. This was not lost on those protecting the WTC when they conducted a number of studies examining the feasibility of a terrorist attack.[2] On February 26, 1993, a bomb, planted in a rented yellow van, exploded in the underground parking garage of the WTC.[3] Six people were killed, and more than one thousand were injured. The explosion also destroyed the communications system, the police area and operations control center, and vital utility systems, including water and electrical, and fire standpipes.[4] The destruction of the communications center led to the failure of proper evacuation procedures and was one of the contributing factors to smoke inhalation injuries. The actual objective of the terrorists was to topple one of the WTC towers. This goal was not met and is summed up by an FBI explosives expert who says, “If they had found the exact architectural Achilles’ heel or if the bomb had been a little bit bigger, not much more, 500 pounds more, I think it would have brought her down.”[5] The terrorists associated with the WTC bombing include Ramzi Yousef, Khaled Shaikh Mohammed, Abdul Rahman Yasin, Mohammed A. Salameh, Nidal Ayyad, Mahmud Abouhalima, and Amad Mohammad Ajaj. Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, who happens to be the uncle of Ramzi Yousef, financed the operation and was the mastermind of the second terrorist incident involving the WTC on 9/11. The tactical objective was to have one tower crash into the other resulting in the deaths of over 250,000 people.[6] The Jihadis, in this case, only missed their tactical goal by 249,994 innocent civilians. The real incompetency reveals itself in the way that the terrorists were actually captured. The break in the case came when Mohammed Salameh tried to collect the deposit on the van by claiming that the Ryder rental had been stolen while in his possession.[7] The entire WTC terrorist cell was captured because Salameh wanted his $400 deposit back. No honor among thieves? On December 22, 2001, an American Airlines passenger flight made its way from Paris to Miami. An attempt was made by a terrorist to explode a bomb, concealed in a shoe, that would have resulted in the loss of 197 lives.[8] A British citizen, Richard Reid, was sitting in a window seat of the flight. He tried unsuccessfully to ignite a fuse that stuck out of his sneakers. The bomb was made up of triacetone triperoxide and chemicals from plastic explosives that would have created a hole in the hull of the plane causing it to crash.[9] Reid’s radicalization has been attributed, in part, to meeting militant elements in the notorious Finsbury Mosque in England. During his travels to Pakistan and other countries, Reid eventually came to the attention of AQ. He is reported to have received explosives training at an Al-Qa’ida training camps in Afghanistan. Richard Reid plead guilty to eight charges: attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction; attempted homicide; placing an explosive device on an aircraft; attempted murder; two counts of interference with flight crew and attendants; attempted destruction of an aircraft; and using a destructive device during a crime of violence.[10] "I don't care. ... I'm a follower of Osama bin Laden. I'm an enemy of your country and I don't care," Reid said in court when pleading guilty to the charges.[11] The initial reporting indicated that the smell of sulpher is what tipped off the passengers and flight service personnel to Reid’s conduct. The jihadi’s nervousness rendered him incapable of lighting the fuse. The excessive sweating of his hands, known as palmer hyperhidrosis, dripped down on the matches causing them to go out. It was only on his sixth attempt that a flight attendant and passengers became aware of his activities and subdued him. So, Al-Qa’ida sends a terrorist to blow up a plane that requires the successful lighting of a fuse. The only person they have to send is someone who has excessively sweaty hands and feet. AQ could not afford to buy their man a Zippo lighter to ensure the tactical success of the mission? If successful, other terrorists would have used the same methodology. The wreckage of the first bomb would have been on the bottom of the ocean floor costing investigators considerable time and money when determining the exact cause of the destruction. The simultaneous bombings of two U.S. embassies in Africa left 257 people dead and injured over 5000 people. The identical truck bombings happened in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania on August 7, 1998. The U.S. Embassy in Kenya was the largest embassy in the region. This particular embassy was chosen because of the female ambassador, Prudence Bushnell. The group felt that the death of a female ambassador would generate the proper amount of media attention.[12] Some of those involved in the Kenya bombing include Wadih El Hage, Mohamed Sadeek Odeh, and Mohamed Rashed Daoud Al-'Owali. The plan was for the terrorists to load up a truck with explosives and accelerants, gain access to the embassy compound and destroy the embassy. After surveilling the embassy, the terrorists decided to attempt to gain entry through the rear gate. The driver and the passenger were armed and, if necessary, would order the guards to open the gate. Once inside the compound, they would park the vehicle next to the embassy and detonate the explosives. In a series of blunders reminiscent of the “Keystone Kops,” the actions of AQ’s operatives resulted in the massacre of innocent Kenyans. A driver, known only as “Azzam,” was the driver and Al-‘Owali was the passenger of the explosives-laden truck. When the truck approached the back gate, Al-‘Owali got out and started to yell at the guard to open the gate. The guard, sensing that something was amiss, refused to open the gate. When Al-‘Owali complained to Azzam, he told Al-‘Owali to use his 380 caliber-pistol to get the guard to open up the gate. Due to his nervousness, Al-‘Owali had left his gun in the vehicle and instead threw a stun grenade. Azzam started to fire his gun and Al-‘Owali, in his panic, fled, only to be injured by the blast. He suffered minor cuts and was treated at the M.P. Shah hospital. The explosion rocked the back of the embassy, shattering windows and sending glass flying throughout the structure, but failed to take down the building. Instead the nearby Ufundl Cooperative Building, which housed 400 Kenyan office workers having nothing to do with the American embassy, was completely demolished. A commercial bus carrying Kenyan passengers was also obliterated by the blast. The Cooperative Bank House was also affected by the blast with windows being blown out and shards of glass claiming other victims. Ironically, the bombing missed Ambassador Bushnell who was a attending a meeting in the nearby Bank House. How did the plot unravel? The terrorists were caught because Al-‘Owali hid three bullets in a hospital toilet where he was being treated. The munitions were discovered by a janitor who turned the bullets over to the authorities. The FBI had already recovered a gun slide for a 380-caliber pistol from the area and knew that it was linked to the terrorist. When Al-‘Owali was questioned he revealed all. He went so far as to admit being recruited and trained by Al-Qa’ida. How did AQ view its operation? As one of the cell members revealed in court, they thought the bombing was a blunder due to the high number of civilian casualties.[13] Mohamed Sadeek Odeh even blamed his fellow terrorists for not having parked the truck in the proper position. According to Odeh, this resulted in higher civilian casualties.[14] In review, AQ missed their tactical target, killed Kenyan civilians, and had one of its members give up the entire operation when pressed by authorities. Although AQ’s actions resulted in chaos and terror, at no point can this operation be considered a tactical success as the operational objectives were not achieved. Al-Qa'ida has been targeting Pakistan and Musharraf for the last several months with pleas to the Pakistani people to overthrow the government.[15] However, if we probe a little deeper, Usama Bin Laden (UBL) has been advocating the overthrow of Pakistan for over five years without any results.[16] When it looked like AQ would get no support from the Pakistani candidates running for office, it decided to assassinate Benazir Bhutto. AQ hoped the death of Bhutto would hinder the elections and put the people of Pakistan on alert as to what would happen to them if they did not support AQ. The exact opposite happened as the people reacted with horror to the assassination of their beloved Bhutto. Left behind was a galvanized base to continue with her political plans. Over 100,000 supporters of Bhutto gathered for a political rally despite being targeted by terrorists.[19] "We will avenge the blood of Benazir. We don't have bombs. We are not terrorists, but we have political power and we will capitalize on this political power to avenge the death of Benazir," said Haji Jaffar, 75, a retired teacher. "The passion and love for (her party) has increased after Benazir's assassination”.[20] Asif Ali Zardari, the husband of Bhutto, took up his wife's political cause and continued her message of fighting the Islamists. The key question is "are we ready to become a Taliban state? And the answer is: 'No, we're not. That means we are fighting our own battle, we are fighting our own war,"[21] Zardari declared. He went further pressuring his companions to persuade Pakistanis that the fight against Islamic militancy is "our own war," not just America's.[22] Well the Pakistani people spoke during their election process, amid the threats of violence, and Bhutto's party, Pakistan People's Party (PPP), won and formed an alliance with the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N). In fact some of the religious parties were voted out of office. This should come as no surprise given the lack of popularity among the Pakistani people for the Taliban and AQ view of the world.[23] The immediate answer from the Taliban and AQ was silence. It seems that their plans for Pakistan actually backfired on them. Al-Qa’ida released their plan to take over the world in seven easy steps back in 2005. [24] The aim was to assure the worldwide Jihadi movement that AQ had a strategic vision. The main goal was to reestablish the Caliphate and Islamic dominance over the world. The phases were planned out in a succession of years. By 2005, AQ was demonstrating that their 20-year plan was well underway. The plan was divided into phases; phase one, 2000 – 2003, “The Awakening Phase” in which al-Qa’ida would provoke the West (via 9/11) to declare war on the Islamic world; phase two, 2004 – 2006, “The Opening Eyes Phase” in which al-Qa’ida would become a social movement and experience a huge recruitment drive; phase three, 2007 – 2010, “The Arising and Standing Up Phase” which will focus AQ operations in Syria, Turkey, Jordan and Israel; phase four, 2010 – 2013, “The Unification Phase” which will be aimed at the collapse of the near enemy (the Middle Eastern) governments; phase five, 2013 – 2016, “The Caliphate Rising Phase” in which Al-Qa’ida will be able to declare a Caliphate due to the loss of US influence over the Middle East and the powerlessness of Israel; phase six, 2016 – 2018, “The Total Confrontation Phase” in which the empowered Caliphate will use its Islamic Army to fight the unbelievers; and the final phase, 2018 – 2020, “The Definitive Victory Phase” in which the world “unbelievers” will be defeated after a two year war by a unified Muslim army of 1.5 billion men. The above represents AQ’s most ambitious plans to date. Currently, the world’s foremost terrorist organization is running about 8 years behind in implementing its master plan. Iraq was to be the operational center for the jihadi army during the “Opening Eyes Phase.” Al-Qa’ida in Iraq is on its heels with the loss of its declared capital of Ramadi. Although, foreign fighters continue to fill the ranks of AQI, the Iraqi people have not joined the group in droves as AQ predicted. Even in Pakistan, which is still seen as AQ friendly, support continues to waver. A report by MSNBC shows UBL's popularity has dropped by 50% in 5 months.[25] The impact of Information Operations has been detailed in a previous NGIA, Inc. In-Depth Analysis report entitled “Al-Qa’ida’s Reality.” The attention the media gives to terrorist incidents unfortunately emboldens the terrorists. For the most part, AQ has a very effective message laden with propaganda that gets unprecedented airplay. To get this type of exposure, a company would have to spend millions. A careful examination of the media coverage reveals a redundant analysis of terrorist incidents and what they mean without questioning the terrorist’s message. To the Arab world, the cause of the Palestinians and their war against Israel must be won at all costs. However, since the establishment of AQ on the global stage, the media has tended to concentrate on bin Laden’s cult of personality. It is only when the Palestinians attack Israel that the media turns its attention back to the Palestinians. The only other time the Palestinians are mentioned is when an American administration decides to try to force peace upon the Middle East. Palestine is where the foreign fighter veterans of the Soviet-Afghan War were supposed to end up. After the defeat of the Soviets, Abdullah Azzam, then leader of what would become AQ, wanted to take all his fighters and head to the Palestinian lands. The course of terrorist history was changed when a car bomb, which no group ever took credit for, exploded, killing Azzam and placing the mantle of leadership squarely on Bin Laden. The new terror leader changed the focus of the group to the “far enemy” and the Palestinian cause was put on the back burner.[26] The latest queries that Ayman Al-Zawahiri fielded in his worldwide “town hall meeting” demonstrate that many question the commitment of AQ to Palestine. UBL and Zawahiri have deflected this by claiming that AQ operations in Afghanistan and Iraq are proxy wars that help the Palestinians. The leadership promises to help the Palestinians as soon as AQ has accomplished its own agenda. One of the answers that Zawahiri gives indicates that he reviles the leadership of the Palestinian groups (Hamas, Hezbollah, and Fatah) as corrupt and implores those seeking Jihad to join the true believers, AQ, in Iraq. AQ is not interested in the Palestinian cause as long as it has to compete with other organizations. They have created a terrorist “niche” for themselves by fighting the entire West. To fight the Israelis would mean undue competition and taking AQ’s struggle off the world stage. Although there have been reports of an AQ presence in Palestine, this alone does not demonstrate a commitment to the cause. AQ has done a good job of sympathizing with the Palestinians while never making an actual effort to support the cause. Indeed, the Palestinian cause may have actually been negatively impacted by AQ’s actions. Since the inception of the War on Terror, the West has realized that terrorist groups cannot survive without vital financial support. The West has systematically shut down these streams of revenue for the terrorists. Many Palestinian revenue streams flew under the radar before the scrutiny by western governments. The Palestinians have to ask themselves whether or not they are better off since the emergence of AQ? The USS Cole bombing resulted in 17 American sailors killed and 39 others injured. The October 12, 2001 attack occurred when the ship pulled in for refueling in the Yemeni port of Aden. A small rubber dinghy was loaded with explosives and detonated when the terrorists pulled along side the ship. The attack on the USS Cole represented AQ’s concerted effort to target a U.S. naval ship that visited the port of Aden. Although Yemen was considered a high-risk environment, no threats were indicated since U.S. naval operations began in January 1999. Jamal Ahmed Mohammed Ali al-Badawi, Fahd al-Quso along with Hassan al-Khamri and Ibrahim al-Thawar (a.k.a. Nibras) made up the terrorist cell for AQ’s first attempt at maritime terrorism. Hassan and Nibras were the suicide captains of the boat. Al-Badawi coordinated the entire operation including procuring the safe houses in Aden and purchasing the 35 foot dinghy. Al-Badawi planned the attack based on the UBL fatwa to drive the Americans from the Peninsula. The USS Cole bombing was not the first time AQ had tried to hit an American ship off the Yemeni coast. AQ experienced a significant tactical failure when its terror cell tried to attack the USS Sullivan as it pulled into port in January of 2000. The terrorists loaded the boat with so much explosive that it actually sank before it could be detonated. The terrorists called off the mission, recovered the boat and explosives and targeted the USS Cole instead. The CIA later concluded that had the terrorists executed the Cole attack with greater precision they would have sunk the ship and killed 300. [27] In this case, the great informational operation failure was the lack of any videotaping of the attack. AQ wanted the USS Cole attack videotaped so they could use it in their propaganda and recruitment videos. The IO was so important to AQ that they procured an apartment overlooking the harbor to capture the event. Al-Quso was trained to videotape the terrorist’s triumphant moment, but slept through his alarm. Taking a taxi to try and get into position to film the event proved too little, too late as al-Quso actually missed the bombing.[28] As evidenced by the number of questions that Zawahiri chose to respond to in his “town hall” Q&A session, Egypt is a matter of concern for the greater Muslim community. The country of Egypt has been under attack by Islamic militants since the inception of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in 1928. The founder of the organization was a school teacher named Hassan al-Banna. Al-Banna’s message was one of Islamic revival calling for a return to the version of Islam as practiced by the first followers of Mohammad. The Brotherhood pushed an idea of nationalism, which would erase class divisions in Egypt while instilling Islamic values. The MB is responsible for establishing a Sharia compliant finance system. Prior to the 1930s, no such system existed. Here is the creed of the MB: Allah is our objective. The Brotherhood stood up social and educational programs to indoctrinate members throughout Egypt. By 1939, the organization had become a political entity advocating for a government based solely on Sharia law. In 1945, the Brotherhood’s Parliamentary candidates were defeated in an election that the MB claimed was rigged.[30] During this time, the group expanded its branches and membership beyond the Egyptian borders. However, its downfall in Egypt occurred in 1948 when the Brotherhood assassinated the Prime Minister and was outlawed in the country soon after. The MB gained favor from the Egyptian government when it supported Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Free Officer’s overthrow of King Farouk. However, the new relationship was doomed when Nasser did not implement the Sharia law as his government’s foundation. The MB tried to assassinate Nasser, which led to yet another banning of the organization. One of the leaders of the Brotherhood, Sayyid Qutb, wrote a number of books calling for the destruction of any government that is secular. This infusion of violent ideology, coupled with the idea that Muslims where supposed to be the saviors of mankind, provided a higher, more spiritual calling for the MB. The crackdown on the Brotherhood lasted until the death of Nasser and the appointment of Anwar Sadat as the Egyptian President. Sadat released the MB members still in jail in 1971. President Sadat’s moves towards stabilized relations with the Israelis, reliance on U.S. economic aid and expulsion from the Arab League provided the MB with the reasons it needed to oppose his government.[31] The MB assassinated Sadat in 1981 and was supposed to overthrow the government as it was recoiling from the plot. The coup did not happen and the MB was quickly rounded up and jailed. One of the members at the time was Zawahiri. The assassination resulted in the ascendancy of Mubarak and another crackdown on the organization. Since that time, the Brotherhood has been in disarray and has theoretically abandoned its militant ways to pursue a more modernized political agenda. This is why Zawahiri is answering so many questions about possible Egyptian jihad. Egypt represents Zawahiri’s personal vendetta. By “selecting” so many Egypt related questions, Zawahiri is trying to show that there is an active need for jihad in Egypt. This is probably one of the best hoaxes in AQ’s IO. Zawahiri is reinstilling the “plight” of the Egyptians into the global jihadi mindset. This will allow him to call for jihadis to go to Egypt to help out their brethren later on. When Zawahiri was a part of the MB, he believed that Egypt would be the epicenter of the Islamic world in the fight against the West.[32] A disturbing tactic has emerged among AQ and its franchisees. A good illustration of the method is found in the use of Rabah Bechla as a suicide bomber by AQ in Africa (called Al-Qa'ida Committee in the Islamic Maghreb or AQCIM). Bechla, a 64-year old terminal cancer patient, drove a pickup truck laden with explosives into a UN building. Rabah Bechla’s body was so ravaged by cancer that he may have had only days to live.[33] One of the greatest Information Operations that AQ ever pulled off was stealing the credit for the Afghan Mujahideen. The Soviet Union invaded the country of Afghanistan in 1979 and fought a costly war for 10 years before retreating in defeat. The countrymen of Afghanistan fought the Soviets with guerilla warfare and the latest in American technology. The foreign fighters that went through the camps that Bin Laden was associated with were focused on training and not necessarily on participating in the conflict. Most of the Saudis that went through the camps used this as a way of proving their manhood but left after only a couple of months. In speeches given since the Afghan victory, Bin Laden always uses the term Mujahideen to describe his terrorist fighters. The Mujahideen were the Afghanis that actually fought the Soviets and liberated the country. One of the few times that AQ committed forces to the Mujahideen was in support of the Taliban’s civil war against other Afghan warlords after the Soviet departure. While UBL has always claimed that the victory over the Soviets was because of his Mujahideen, it should be recalled that he was a low level financier responsible mainly for housing and feeding non-Afghan participants. Although he was a regional commander at one time, he was minimally involved in firefights. Given that the liberators of Afghanistan were the native Mujahideen backed by the latest in American weaponry and intelligence, UBL’s claim of AQ liberating the country is a lie that perpetuates itself and serves to reinforce terrorist propaganda to this day. While there has been no overt announcement of a split between the leaders of AQ, careful examination reveals a deepening schism. The belief about AQ is that the two leaders are united in their ideology and support each other unquestioningly. Zawahiri has been a vital part of the AQ organization since its inception and has been an important ally of bin Laden since 1986. The Egyptian doctor became the de facto 2nd in command through years of operations with Al-Qa’ida. What most analysts have failed to recognize is the significance of a couple items in the IO campaign of AQ. The first is that every time UBL releases a tape, Zawahiri seems to immediately follow up with his own message. This keeps the focus on the message of Zawahiri and moves UBL out of the spotlight. Second, in Zawahiri’s Q&A session, he mentions his writings on twenty-one separate occasions. He refers to these writings to clarify answers that he is providing. The mention of his writings is being used to establish a scholarly expertise for the Ummah to recognize. By referring to the publication of his new book 14 times, Zawahiri is trying to influence a potential future global jihad. It can be surmised that Zawahiri is usurping the ideology of AQ from UBL by publishing the book. The third item is that the AQ leader and his deputy do not agree on how to handle the followers of the Shi’a religion. UBL has supported and taken support from Iran in the past while Zawahiri calls the Shi’a nation the Ummah’s greatest traitors. Expect this particular rift to continue as sides will have to be chosen when it comes to the Shi’a. One of the other areas where Al-Qa’ida has failed is in keeping control over those who have adopted the AQ name. As AQ has expanded its ranks by taking other organizations under its banner and re-branding them with the AQ name, control becomes an issue. This happens in any organization as it grows rapidly and takes on other projects. The leaders in these respective franchises must make decisions that benefit the local group and sometimes ignore the main HQ’s directives. These failures are evident and are demonstrated by the activities of AQI and the Al-Qa'ida Committee in the Islamic Maghreb (AQCIM). AQCIM is a good example of how a regional terrorist group evolves into an AQ franchisee. These terrorists were formerly known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC). Although the GSPC allied themselves with AQ in 2004, it was not until September 2006 that the organization officially merged with AQ and became AQCIM. In announcing the group, Zawahri hoped the alliance would work against Western interests including the US and Algeria's colonizer, France. Zawahiri had to answer questions about the indiscriminate killing of innocent Muslims by the AQCIM. The doctor walked a fine line and danced around the issue saying that he believed the Algerian terrorists when they said they only targeted unbelievers. The real problem is that AQ has no control over their affiliate AQCIM. They were glad to accept the terrorist group under its umbrella because it makes AQ seem larger and more powerful. The reason the AQCIM is affiliated with AQ is because of the benefit of increased media exposure. The terrorists’ hope is that the issue of Algeria will be on the global stage. AQCIM is a local, not a global movement. This is the same course of action the original insurgency group, the FLN, used to gain Algerian independence from France. The expectations for AQCIM are that it will continue to prioritize the targets it goes after with little input from AQ. As AQCIM gains notoriety from their attacks, it may even challenge AQ for media supremacy and provide a new direction for the global jihad. Al-Qa’ida in Iraq and its former, now deceased, leader Abu Musab Zaraqawi, posed a number of control problems for AQ. One incident that incensed many AQ supporters was the attempt by Zarqawi to open up a terrorist front in Jordan. Zarqawi held particular disdain for the monarchy in his homeland and took every opportunity to attack his country. These attacks include a 2003 car bomb at the Jordanian Embassy and the 2004 arrest of Zarqawi’s teams when they attempted to blow up the headquarters of Jordan's intelligence service with 20 tons of explosives laced with chemicals.[37] Zarqawi's people had a tactical objective failure when they tried to hit U.S. Navy ships with missiles but missed.[38] While none of these actions drew the ire of the people of Jordan, Zarqawi overstepped his boundaries when his network blew up three Jordanian hotels. The casualties in these terrorist attacks were mainly Jordanians, who took to the streets calling for the death of the AQI leader. One of the hotels that was bombed was holding a wedding reception which resulted in the deaths of men, women and children. The killing of innocent Muslims created a stir in many countries and evoked this from a relative of one of the bombers, "We were shocked when we saw on TV the number of civilians killed in the operation because we thought the killed would be Americans and Jews, but they were Muslims, regretfully”.[39] This heinous act of terrorism even spurred denunciations from Zarqawi’s relatives: Fifty-seven members of his al-Khalayleh clan, including his brother and first cousin, took half-page advertisements in Jordan's leading newspapers to revile the militant leader. "We denounce in the clearest terms all the terrorist actions claimed by the so-called Ahmed Fadheel Nazzal al-Khalayleh, who calls himself Abu Musab al-Zarqawi", wrote the family members who proclaimed "homage" to the Hashemite throne and "to our precious Jordan.” "We announce, and all the people are our witnesses, that we - the sons of the al-Khalayleh tribe - are innocent of him and all that emanates from him, whether action, assertion or decision."[40] The problem with Jordan was solved when Zarqawi was killed by Coalition Forces in Iraq. Zarqawi may have read the Al-Qa’ida grand plan and may have decided to attack Jordan earlier than the designated timeframe of “The Arising and Standing Up Phase” from 2007 to 2010. This was not the only issue of control that Zarqawi posed for AQ. The other major control problem that Zarqawi embodied was the start of the sectarian violence in Iraq. Zarqawi negotiated with UBL and AQ for over a year to become the leader of AQI. The Jordanian Zarqawi felt that the Shi’a populace of Iraq was primarily responsible for the lack of support for AQ. In Zarqawi’s view, the Shi’a were apostates and should be as much of a target for AQ as the Americans and the Coalition Forces. UBL wanted Zarqawi to concentrate his effort on the Americans and a compromise was made that Coalition Forces would take top priority. Unfortunately for AQ, Zarqawi immediately stepped up attacks against the Shi’a community, dividing the Iraqi populace along religious lines. In a letter intercepted by friendly forces in Iraq, Zawahiri chastised Zarqawi for the violence against the Shi’a: For that reason, many of your Muslim admirers amongst the common folk are wondering about your attacks on the Shi’a. The sharpness of this questioning increases when the attacks are on one of their mosques, and it increases more when the attacks are on the mausoleum of Imam Ali Bin Abi Talib, may God honor him. My opinion is that this matter won't be acceptable to the Muslim populace however much you have tried to explain it, and aversion to this will continue. Indeed, questions will circulate among mujahedeen circles and their opinion makers about the correctness of this conflict with the Shi’a at this time. Is it something that is unavoidable? Or, is it something can be put off until the force of the mujahed movement in Iraq gets stronger? And if some of the operations were necessary for self-defense, were all of the operations necessary? Or, were there some operations that weren't called for? And is the opening of another front now in addition to the front against the Americans and the government a wise decision? Or, does this conflict with the Shi’a lift the burden from the Americans by diverting the mujahedeen to the Shi’a, while the Americans continue to control matters from afar? And if the attacks on Shi’a leaders were necessary to put a stop to their plans, then why were there attacks on ordinary Sh’ia? Won't this lead to reinforcing false ideas in their minds, even as it is incumbent on us to preach the call of Islam to them and explain and communicate to guide them to the truth? And can the mujahedeen kill all of the Shi’a in Iraq? Has any Islamic state in history ever tried that? And why kill ordinary Shi’a considering that they are forgiven because of their ignorance? And what loss will befall us if we did not attack the Shi’a? And do the brothers forget that we have more than one hundred prisoners - many of whom are from the leadership who are wanted in their countries - in the custody of the Iranians? And even if we attack the Shi’a out of necessity, then why do you announce this matter and make it public, which compels the Iranians to take counter measures? And do the brothers forget that both we and the Iranians need to refrain from harming each other at this time in which the Americans are targeting us? All of these questions and others are circulating among your brothers, and they are monitoring the picture from afar, as I told you. One who monitors from afar lacks many of the important details that affect decision-making in the field. However, monitoring from afar has the advantage of providing the total picture and observing the general line without getting submerged in the details, which might draw attention away from the direction of the target. As the English proverb says, the person who is standing among the leaves of the tree might not see the tree. One of the most important factors of success is that you don't let your eyes lose sight of the target, and that it should stand before you always. Otherwise you deviate from the general line through a policy of reaction. And this is a lifetime's experience, and I will not conceal from you the fact that we suffered a lot through following this policy of reaction, then we suffered a lot another time because we tried to return to the original line.[41]
”We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat mujahideen,” revealed AQ’s top commander for Afghanistan operations, Mustafa Abu al-Yazid.[17] The commander went on to state that the death squad consisted of Punjabi associates of the underground anti-Shi’ite militant group, Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, operating under al-Qa’ida orders.[18]
The messenger is our leader.
Quran is our law.
Jihad is our way.
Dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope.[29]
The recent use of two mentally disabled women, who were remotely detonated in Baghdad markets, shows the level of "courage" being exhibited by al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI). Reports are circulating that these pawns were unaware that they were being used as weapons.[34] This revelation comes on the heels of Bhutto’s assassination by 15-year old suicide bomber, Aitezaz Shah. Shah had already been planning a bombing attack on a religious festival.[35]
So the once "great warriors" of AQ and it's franchisees have been reduced to carrying out operations with cancer-ridden old men, handicapped women and children. Where are the throngs of young men that Bin Laden had promised would swell his ranks to challenge the evil West? The use of the men, women and children was an effort to demonstrate the undying Muslim commitment to the AQ terrorist ideology. The people in these cases were supposed to generate a litany of discussion that would once again give Al-Qa’ida unprecedented media coverage. The outrage that should have accompanied the use of the handicapped women would have made good propaganda fodder for AQ. Unfortunately for them, it was only a blip in the media ocean.
Last year, Abu Musab Abdulwadood, the newest leader of the GSPC, said that "America and France are looting [Algeria's] treasures and taking control over our destinies after the thief Abdelaziz Bouteflika [the Algerian president] collaborated with them".[36] If you look at the core issue of the Algerian insurgency, you will see that the United States has nothing to do with the insurgents and their government. Just as with Usama Bin Laden's attempt to focus on the US, as opposed to governments closer to home, the message resonates with its followers.
Zarqawi’s actions lead one to believe that he threw out the number one rule of an insurgency; guerrillas must have support of the people. Instead Zarqawi believed the people must be more afraid of him. He needed to instill the belief that the Iraqi government was incapable of protecting them. AQI tried to bring all the Sunni insurgents together as a national unified insurgency, but their offers were rebuffed. AQI re-launched themselves as the Mujahideen Shura Council in late 2005. The Council would unite the Sunnis, but again offers to consolidate the forces were rebuffed by other insurgent groups. The Mujahideen Shura Council then appointed an Iraqi as its leader to try to change its image as a foreign led organization. The other Sunni groups still did not join the organization. Zarqawi became so infuriated by the other Sunnis that he murdered a number of the tribal shieks. By the time Zarqawi was killed by U.S. Forces in 2006, the AQI leader had made enemies out of most of the population.
Zarqawi’s violence led Iran to back the Shi’a militants in Iraq. AQI’s actions against the Sunnis allowed for the formation of the “Awakening Council” and the turning of the insurgents against the terrorist group. AQI eventually became the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and claimed sovereignty over 12 Iraqi provinces. The organization’s limits were exposed when it was revealed that their leader was a fictitious creation aimed at securing local support. Furthering the damage was the group’s failure to occupy the designated capital of the ISI lands in the Anbar Province. All these operational failures were a direct result of AQ’s inability to maintain control of just one of its many field commanders.
Another aspect of failure in the global jihad involves the next generation of Islamic terrorists. The new generation consists of individuals and groups who came together to battle the West without the benefit of formal terror training in the camps of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq or elsewhere. As we have seen, the trained jihadis have major problems, so let us examine incidents by the untrained, but inspired, terrorists.
Six Muslim immigrants were arrested when they plotted to kill U.S. soldiers at Fort Dix, New Jersey. How were they apprehended? These “wannabes” went to Circuit City to have a VCR tape of their jihadi training and celebration converted into a DVD format. On the 90-minute tape the men are seen shooting weapons while yelling the now familiar refrain preferred by suicide Islamic jihadists, 'Allahu Akbar’ ('God is Great!’). The clerk alerted his bosses, who called the FBI.
The investigation led to the arrest of Mohamad Shnewer, 22, Serdar Tatar, 23, and Albanian brothers Dritan Duka, 28, Shain Duka, 26, and Eljvir Duka 23. All were charged with conspiring to murder U.S. military personnel. A sixth man, Agron Abdullahu, 24, was charged with aiding and abetting the others. It was later learned that Abdullahu had been a sniper in Kosovo.
An FBI informant was able to penetrate the group and gathered intelligence and evidence from inside the organization. During the sixteen month investigation, the men were recorded plotting to attack the Army base with rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) with the goal of killing at least 100 soldiers. A secondary target was a nearby U.S. naval base in Philadelphia. The terrorists were to strike during the annual Army-Navy football game.
“You know where the stadiums are in Philadelphia?” Shnewer is quoted as telling a confidential FBI informant on March 16, 2007, according to the affidavit. “There is the Navy base and every year they have the Army-Navy ball game and they come and stay one or two weeks … the Navy base will then be full of people … You see this is an opportunity, and the beauty of this location, specifically, if you have the proper weaponry, is that you can hit it from where, do you know? From New Jersey.”[42]
To this end, the men procured weapons, conducted surveillance of the fort and engaged in firearms training at ranges in Pennsylvania. The leader of the cell, Shnewer, gave his personal laptop to the FBI informant, who was then told to review DVD files which contained the last will and testament of two of the September 11 hijackers along with images of Osama bin Laden exhorting followers to join the jihadist movement.[43]
The group was tripped up because they wanted to make a video showing their commitment to jihad. The need for media attention and the recognition of peers is what led to their downfall. It should be remembered that the importance of media coverage has been instilled in the movement by the massive media propagation efforts of AQ, Usama bin Laden and other jihadis.
Another group of would-be terrorists failed in their attempt to blow up car bombs at London's West End and the Glasgow airport. Police foiled a car bomb plot in central London discovering explosives packed into two Mercedes that had been loaded with petrol, gas canisters and nails in an area teeming with nightlife. One of the cars was discovered when it was towed away and the impound crew inspected the car. The Glasgow plot failed because the driver could not get his vehicle through the airport security doors. The driver attempted to drive his car through the doors and barriers a number of times before getting the car stuck.
The cars in Glasgow were filled with petrol and propane canisters. As the Jeep Cherokee tried to plow through the security doors, the vehicle became engulfed in flames and the occupants jumped from the car on fire. One of the occupants died from the burns that covered 90% of his body. The Glasgow attack happened because the London bomb plot failed.
London has an extensive camera monitoring system that helped identify the people and other vehicles involved in the London plot and capture all those involved in the Scottish plot. These terrorists demonstrated a fundamental lack of tactical awareness and knowledge of the security measures at the airport.
A new ploy in the extremist plan to attack the West is to recruit vulnerable individuals for terrorism. The latest case surfaced in May of 2008 when a British national, 22 year old white Muslim convert, Nick Reilly, tried to detonate a homemade nail bomb in an upscale restaurant in Exeter. Instead of a successful terrorist incident, the man, who was mentally ill and possibly suffered from autism, was caught in a blast as he tried to emplace the explosive device.
Nick Reilly changed his name to Mohammed Rasheed after converting to Islam four years ago. Mr. Reilly was a loner due to his mental condition and was recruited by some Muslims who he met at a local fish and chip restaurant. The young man had a history of suicide attempts and spent a lot of his free time on the computer. It is believed that somebody posed as a girl on the internet to entice Nick to carry out the mission. Nick received a text message right before he left for the mission and said that he would do anything for his internet girlfriend. Kim Reilly, his mother, claimed that the Muslims Nick hung out with helped him meet his new girl. [44]
This demonstrates a push by AQ to try and recruit "western looking" persons who can fly under the radar of law enforcement. The recruiting trend is in stark contrast to the original organization that UBL envisioned when he was in Afghanistan in the early years. UBL believed that AQ should only be made up of Saudis who were the true followers of the Islamic faith. As reality sets in with the loss of a viable base in Afghanistan and operational control in Iraq, UBL and AQ now have to expand the criteria for membership in the terrorist organization. Expect this trend to continue as AQ has a driving need to fill its ranks. The terror group’s membership goals can only be met by allowing for a more diverse recruiting class.
As this report clearly points out, the terrorist organization known as Al-Qa’ida is not as invincible as previously believed. Although the AQ name continues to instill the psychological fear associated with terrorism, the task of completing operational objectives has not always been successful. The organization failed to topple the World Trade Center in 1993, failed to blow up a transatlantic flight, failed to bring down the U.S. embassy in Kenya, failed to create an uprising in Pakistan during a period of political instability and failed to create the mass social movement that would unite the Muslim Ummah according to the group’s 20 year time table. AQ’s information campaign is riddled with failures as well. Some of the more egregious examples include failing to take up the Palestinian cause, botching the filming of the attack on the U.S.S. Cole, failing to inspire another Egyptian Jihad, the recruiting of the mentally and physically disabled, taking credit for the Afghanistan Mujahideen victory and the philosophical split between Usama and Zawahiri. Control failures over the expanding ranks of AQ include the atrocities being conducted by AQCIM and Zarqawi’s attacks on Jordan and the Shi’a population of Iraq. Lastly, the newest generation of AQ inspired terrorists has failed to carry out successful attacks under the AQ banner. These follies include the failed Fort Dix 6 plot, the UK/Glasgow airport bombing and the recruitment of a mentally challenged man to plant nail bombs.
The most critical element uncovered is the noticeably growing rift among the leadership concerning the direction of the group. The New York Times reports that UBL sought ought the Iranians during the 1990s. [45] There was a meeting in the mid-1990s where the Iranians called for a halt to the fighting between Islamist-terrorist groups in order to forge greater cooperation against the West. UBL represented Sunni terrorists during the meeting. [46] This is one of the reasons that AQ finds sanctuary in Iran where some of their leadership is still under “supposed” house arrest. UBL did not welcome the sectarian violence that gripped Iraq under Zarqawi’s leadership. UBL is a uniter and Zawahiri has called out all the other terrorist groups because he seeks the ascendancy of AQ in the terrorist pyramid. AQ is probably fractured into two camps over the notion as to whether the Shiites are apostates or allies. Expect that Zawahiri will continue to release a message after each new UBL message. This will continue the subtle undermining of who speaks to, and for, al-Qa’ida. One wonders whether UBL will become a martyr due to a mysterious explosion like his former mentor Abdullah Azzam? Or, will Zawahiri wait for the sick UBL to pass naturally before the doctor takes control of AQ?
Notes
[1] Lihou, Norman T. “Al-Qa’ida Plan in Pakistan Backfires” Thinking Points – News and Analysis, 22 Feb 2008, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://thinkingpoints.thengia.org/2008/02/22/alqaida-pakistan-plan-backfires.aspx
[2] New York Supreme Court “In the Matter of World Trade Center Bombing Litigation” New York State Law Reporting Bureau , 9 Jul 2004, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.courts.state.ny.us/reporter/3dseries/2004/2004_24030.htm
[3] Ibid, New York Supreme Court
[4] Ibid, New York Supreme Court
[5] Cooperative Research History Commons “February 26, 1993: WTC Is Bombed but Does Not Collapse, as Bombers Had Hoped” retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/context.jsp?item=a022693wtcbombing#a022693wtcbombing
[6] Parachini, John V. “The World Trade Center Bombers (1993)” Chapter 11 in Jonathan B. Tucker, Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. (2000) retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:DmSKyYC_XGAJ:cns.miis.edu/research/wtc01/pdfs/toxter11.pdf+wtc+engineer+testimony+1993&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=6&gl=us
[7] 911 Report “Counterterrorism Evolves” National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, Aug 21 2004, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report_Ch3.htm
[8] Ashcroft, John “News Conference Regarding Richard Reid” U.S. Department of Justice, January 16, 2002 retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.terrorismcentral.com/Library/Government/US/DOJ/Docs/AGGReid.html
[9] Belluck, Pam and Chang, Kenneth. “A NATION CHALLENGED: THE INVESTIGATION; Shoes Were a 'Homemade Bomb,' F.B.I. Agent Says” New York Times 29 Dec 2001, retrieved 10 Apr 2008 http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D07E5D81F31F93AA15751C1A9679C8B63
[10] CBS News “’Shoe Bomber' Pleads Guilty” Special Report War on Terror 4 Oct 2002, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/10/02/attack/main524158.shtml
[11] Ibid, CBS News
[12] Feyerick, Deborah and Hirschkorn Phil “Agent: Defendant said Kenya embassy 'easy target'” CNN 8 Mar 2001, retrieved 10 Apr 2008 http://archives.cnn.com/2001/LAW/03/07/embassy.bombing.trial/
[13] Hirschkorn Phil “Agent: Defendant called Kenya attack a 'blunder’” CNN 28 Feb 2001, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://archives.cnn.com/2001/LAW/02/28/embassy.bombing.01/
[14] Ibid, Hirschkorn.
[15] Walsh, Declan. “Bin Laden tape urges uprising against 'infidel' Musharraf as poll date is set” The Guardian 21 Sep 2007, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/sep/21/alqaida.pakistan
[16] Staff and Agencies, “Latest 'Bin Laden' tape urges suicide attacks” The Guardian 8 Apr 2003, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/apr/08/afghanistan.alqaida
[17] Shahzad, Syed Saleem “Al-Qaeda claims Bhutto killing” Asia Times Online 29 Dec 2007, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IL29Df01.html
[18] Ibid, Shahzad.
[19] Associated Press “Election Rally Bombed in Pakistan” International Herald Tribune 9 Feb 2008, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/02/09/news/Pakistan.php
[20] Ibid, Associated Press.
[21] Graham, Stephen. “Bhutto's husband speaks ahead of Pakistan election” Associated Press – Detroit Free Press 17 Feb 2008, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080217/NEWS07/80217011/1049/SPORTS01
[22] Ibid, Graham.
[23] Lihou, Norman T. “Al-Qa’ida’s Reality Settling In” Thinking Points – News and Analysis 11 Feb 2008, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://thinkingpoints.thengia.org/2008/02/11/alqaidas-reality-settling-in.aspx
[24] Musharbash, Yassin, “What al-Qaida Really Wants” SPEIGEL Online, Aug 12 2005, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 at http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,369448,00.html.
[25] Associated Press “Poll: Bin Laden popularity fading in Pakistan” MSNBC 10 Feb 2008, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23094334/
[26] Brown, Samuel VI and Lihou, Norman T. “Al-Qa’ida’s Reality” NGIA In-Depth Analysis Paper, 31 Jan 2008, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://thinkingpoints.thengia.org/files/115021-107337/Al_Qaidas_Reality_.pdf
[27] Cooperative Research History Commons “October 12, 2000: USS Cole Bombed by Al-Qaeda” Profile: Fahad al-Quso, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/entity.jsp?entity=fahad_al-quso
[28] Wright, Lawrence “The Agent” New Yorker 10 July 2006, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.lawrencewright.com/WrightSoufan.pdf
[29] Muslim Brotherhood Movement Page, retrieved on 11 Apr 2008 http://www.ummah.net/ikhwan/
[30] Servold, Gary M. “The Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic Radicalism” Chapter 3.
[31] Ibid, Servold.
[32] Wright, Lawrence, “The Looming Tower” pg. 39
[33] Bennhold, Katrin “Poverty, jail seen a suicide-bomber pattern” Boston Globe 14 Dec 2007, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.boston.com/news/world/africa/articles/2007/12/14/poverty_jail_seen_a_suicide_bomber_pattern/
[34] Karadsheh, Jomana and Taha, Ahmed “U.S.: 'Demonic' militants sent women to bomb markets in Iraq” CNN 2 Feb 2008, retrieved on 10 Apr 2008 http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/02/01/iraq.main/index.html
[35] International News “Pakistan arrests teen suspect in Bhutto plot” Kuwait Times 20 Jan 2008, retrieved 10 Apr 2008 http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=MTMyMzk4MTk5[36] Michael, Maggie “Algerian Group Leader Threatens Attack” Washington Post 9 Jan 2007, retrieved on 11 Apr 2008 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/09/AR2007010901535.html
[37] Finer, Jonathan and Whitlock, Craig “Zarqawi's Network Asserts It Launched Attacks in Amman” Washington Post 11 Nov 2005, retrieved on 11 Apr 2008 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/10/AR2005111002074.html
[38] Ibid, Finer.
[39] Phillips, James “Zarqawi's Amman Bombings: Jordan's 9/11” The Heritage Foundation WebMemo #919 18 Nov 2005 retrieved on 11 Apr 2008 http://www.heritage.org/research/MiddleEast/wm919.cfm
[40] Howard, Michael “Zarqawi’s Family Disowns Him After Bombings” The Guardian 21 Nov 2005, retrieved on 11 Apr 2008 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/nov/21/iraq.michaelhoward[41] “Letter from al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi, 9 July 2005,” DNI.gov, 11 October 2005.
[42] Hosenball, Mark and Isikoff, Michael “Terror Watch- The Jersey Plot” Newsweek May 8, 2007.
[43] Ibid, Hosenball and Isikoff.
[44] Hodgson, Grant and Penrose, Justin “Exclusive: Suicide bomb suspect in honeytrap probe” Sunday Mirror May 25, 2008.
[45] Risen, James “A NATION CHALLENGED: QAEDA DIPLOMACY; Bin Laden Sought Iran as an Ally, U.S. Intelligence Documents Say” New York Times December 31, 2001.
[46] Teft, Bruce, America Truth Forum - Understanding the Threat of Radical Islamist Terrorism Presentation November 10th and 11th, 2006.
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Introduction
On the 60th anniversary of the creation of the State of Israel, Usama bin Laden (UBL) chose to remind the world of his hatred for the country and its people. The main thrust of his latest tape revolves around the media distorting the facts concerning the almost daily terrorist acts of the Palestinians against the Israelis. UBL, who at times seems to get more airplay than anybody in history, claims that 9/11 was inspired by the plight of the Palestinians. This paper will examine the main points of UBL’s tape and shed light on divergences and omissions of fact.
Title of the Speech: The Causes of Conflict on the 60th Anniversary of the State of Israeli Occupation
The Supposed Connection to the Palestinian People
Bin Laden Speech: In the name of Allah, the most merciful and gracious, to all populations in general, peace be upon those who follow the guidance. My message to you is about one [of] the most important struggles between our civilization and your civilization and I mean the Palestinian issue. This struggle is intensified by your current policies. Here, I assure that the Palestinian issue is the main single issue of my Umma (Islamic nation). And from this point, it was an important factor in providing me since childhood and providing the 19 free men with this great feeling and obligation to support the unjust and punish the oppressive Jews and their agents.
Analysis Comment: It is very surprising that Bin Laden has now tied the Palestinian cause to 9/11. It is amazing what a leader will say when his organization has lost prestige over the years. Usama and al-Qa’ida have been on an organizational and power downfall since the death of Zarqawi in Iraq. This reversal of talking about Palestine as the number one cause of strife in the Ummah is in direct contrast to the direction Usama took when he gained the leadership reigns of the organization known as “The Base.” It is well known that Bin Laden changed the vision of his mentor, Abdullah Azzam, when he redirected the Arab fight from Palestine to the “Far Enemy” (America). The redirection can be viewed as a conflict between the visions of Dr. Zawahiri and UBL. In a recent taped message (the Part I Town Hall Q&A), Zawahiri regarded Iraq as a more important front in the ‘Ideologically-Inspired Extremist Terrorism War’ than Palestine. While Zawahiri continues on the path of “liberating” Iraq, with a strategic goal of later fighting in Egypt, UBL tries to link the Palestinian issue with his cause in order to facilitate gaining a wider audience and recruitment pool to re-energize AQ. The amount of money that flows into the Palestinian cause is enough to change any organization’s goals.
Bin Laden Speech: Your injustices on us continued in Lebanon and other places. This is where the events of September 11 came and what preceded it and what followed it, and here I want to bring to your attention and tell you the following:
Analysis Comment: UBL has always been very crafty at taking credit for others work, but in this case he places the inspiration for 9/11 on the Palestinians. So we went from an event that was conducted by AQ for its own cause to the “real motivation” for 9/11 being the unjust treatment of the Palestinians. Four years after 9/11 the terror mastermind claimed the inspiration for the New York attack came from two towers that fell in Lebanon due to terrorism. It took UBL four years to come up with an effective angle to show the greater Ummah that he was the righteous one that would defend all Muslim injustices. Unfortunately for the world’s number one terrorist, his Information Campaign has still failed to bring about the apocalyptic changes to the Middle East that he envisions.
Bin Laden Speech: For those of you who have a just judgment and wish to know the truth about the Palestinian cause, there's now a golden opportunity to get an insight on it. The Jews celebrate with the participation of western leaders the 60th anniversary of the birth of their nation. This celebration has many important factors. I will talk about three of them in brief.
The “Illegal” Formation of the State of Israel
Bin Laden Speech: The first, this event is a clear indication that 60 years ago, the state of Israel did not exist and that it was established on the savagely taken Palestinian land by arms force. This is one of the proofs of our true call that Palestine is our land and that the Israelis are invading occupiers that should be fought.
Analyst Comment: In 2008, WorldNetDaily’s Joseph Farah reminded us of the origin of the Palestinian problem. His findings are useful are in deconstructing UBL’s notions of the Palestinian plight. Among other quotes, Farah has unearthed the following two gems: “The fact that there are these refugees is the direct consequence of the act of the Arab states in opposing partition and the Jewish state. The Arab states agree upon this policy unanimously and they must share in the solution of the problem.” – Emile Ghoury, secretary of the Palestinian Arab Higher Committee, in an interview with the Beirut Telegraph Sept. 6, 1948. "Who brought the Palestinians to Lebanon as refugees, suffering now from the malign attitude of newspapers and communal leaders, who have neither honor nor conscience? Who brought them over in dire straits and penniless, after they lost their honor? The Arab states, and Lebanon amongst them, did it." – The Beirut Muslim weekly Kul-Shay, Aug. 19, 1951. Farah reminds us that the Arab states are all too culpable for the injustices visited upon the Palestinian people. It is interesting to note UBL’s use of the phrase “our land” when referring to “Palestine.” He pretends as if the Yemeni turned Saudi was actually a member of the Palestinian diaspora. Given UBL’s tendency to garner attention for his jihad by claiming credit for other’s success (mujahideen in Afghanistan), it is not hard to imagine UBL seeing himself in this light.
Bin Laden Speech: Second of all, this event showed that the majority of your news sources have abandoned their objectivity, and their professionalism, regarding this cause and whatever resembled it. Those who control it (media) prevailed on your injustices for 60 years. They twisted the truths and have presented the Jews, the invading occupiers of our land as the victims, and on the other hand, they presented the Palestinians unjustly and they were the ones who were only asking for their lands back; they presented them as terrorists and oppressors and that was not right. Here, the danger of the big media outlets is shown. They play the roles of the magicians in twisting the facts, and creating a mislead public opinion, that allows them to drag the Western nations in entering an unjust war against us without any right, as that was clearly shown in the invasion of Iraq. After they marketed the lies of the leader of the White House along those who were with him. That also showed the level of influence of the Zionist lobby in your media outlets where they pictured the issues contradicting its reality just for the advantage of the Israelis.
Analyst Comment: Again, Farah is instructive in debunking UBL’s propaganda. “For the flight and fall of the other villages it is our leaders who are responsible because of their dissemination of rumors exaggerating Jewish crimes and describing them as atrocities in order to inflame the Arabs ... By spreading rumors of Jewish atrocities, killings of women and children etc., they instilled fear and terror in the hearts of the Arabs in Palestine, until they fled leaving their homes and properties to the enemy.” – The Jordanian daily newspaper Al Urdun, April 9, 1953.
Bin Laden Speech: Thirdly, the participation of Western leaders in the festivities of the Jews, assures that the West supports the Jewish savage occupation of our countries, and that they (the politicians) stand with the Israelis in the same trench against us. They confirmed that in practice by sending foreign troops to South Lebanon to support the Jews. The politicians of the West still live with the mentality of the Middle Ages, by oppressing others, through occupying their lands, killing their free men, and stealing their wealth, and this what Bush and Blair have clearly done in invading Iraq, to steal its oil and humiliating its people.
Analysis Comment: Another one of the many false statements made by UBL is that the US and the UK are stealing Iraqi oil. If stealing oil facilitates $4 a gallon gas prices, something is wrong with the way that the stealing actually works. Instead of getting “free” gas in exchange for liberating an entire populace at the cost of 4000+ non-Iraqi lives and several billion dollars, Americans are now paying $4 a gallon. How does a 200% increase in the price of gas add up to “free”? Coalition Forces with the help of the Sons of Iraq program forced the downfall of the presence of al-Qa’ida in Iraq. American forces now live among the Iraqi people and join in tribal and government discussions as the country recovers from years of a dictatorial rule that killed and/or imprisoned many Iraqi citizens. Where was the vaunted guardian of the Ummah community while families were torn apart by Hussein’s rule? Where was the outcry of the violations of human rights when Hussein gassed the Kurdish people? One cannot be the great statesman of the jihadi diaspora and then only cherry-pick “violations” against some people.
Bin Laden Speech: And even if Britain had enabled the Jewish to occupy Palestine through the Balfour promise, and even if the UN had decided to give the Jewish a country on the majority of land in Palestine, these resolutions have no weight, and do not concern us. It is like the one who doesn't own, gave the one who doesn't deserve.
Analysis Comment: Even though the free world grappled with the issue of Israel through diplomatic means, and the majority passed the UN resolutions, it does not matter to Bin Laden. This indicates that there can be no negotiating with egomaniacal true believers who believe only in their own visions. One cannot deny the facts and then propose their own facts to change history. The real tragedy of UBL’s myth is the fact that the Arab world declared war on Israel right after the state was declared. In 2006, Francisco Gil-White of Historical and Investigative Research pointed out, “In 1947 the UN voted to create a Jewish and an Arab state in ‘Palestine.’ In reaction, the Arabs in ‘Palestine,’ led by Hajj Amin al Husseini, and the Arabs living in Arab states, considered that it was much more important to kill the Jews in ‘Palestine’ than to get an Arab state, and they launched a war of extermination. Azzam Pasha, Secretary General of the Arab League (a British creation), promised: “This will be a war of extermination and a momentous massacre, which will be spoken of like the Mongolian massacres and the Crusades.” In addressing the UN Security Council in April 1948, Jamal Husseini, Hajj Amin's cousin and spokesperson for his Arab Higher Committee, straightforwardly and proudly admitted that this was a war of aggression: “The representative of the Jewish Agency told us yesterday that they were not the attackers, that the Arabs had begun the fighting. We did not deny this. We told the whole world that we were going to fight.” Hajj Amin himself issued a fatwa (legal Islamic pronouncement) to murder all the Jews that had survived his Nazi Final Solution: “I declare a holy war, my Moslem brothers! Murder the Jews! Murder them all!”
Bin Laden Speech: Isn't the United Nations just another tool of your tools, and what about the peace negotiations that have been going on for 60 years and they will not end. They are nothing but mere lies tricking fools.
Bin Laden Speech: And Bush's promises of a state is nothing but a meaningless word, just like the promise of Urqoob. Even though Jihad is a duty to free Palestine, we see that there are people who have an unjust judgment and they are always inclined to start an aggression on the rights of others, and taking their wealth unjustly, by stealing it or by obtaining it by armed robbery. If those reach power, disaster will exceed and reproduce, in the same extent of the difference between the power of the state and the power of armed gangs.
Bin Laden Speech: As in our case today, terrorism and armed robbery are carried by the leader of the strongest military machinery known to humanity. Therefore, the disaster is not local or regional, it is a global disaster. And even though your wars have brought us enormous tragedies and horrors, yet we are patient in war. We are the righteous when meeting the aggressors.
Bin Laden Speech: But what causes disgust after all the killing and destruction, the stealing, robberies and the decadence (of your actions), your politicians stand to talk about values. To us, this is unbearable. Do not combine two injustices. If you keep insisting on robbery and theft, you will find what will stop you. So please have some shame and stop this talk about values.
Bin Laden Speech: I will present examples from Palestine's reality to clarify the issue and it will show the fakeness of your values and your double standards when it comes to one issue and that is a trait that is known to your politicians. You call the Palestinian organizations terrorist organizations; they were punished and boycotted.
Accusations of Israeli Atrocities
Bin Laden Speech: Now on the other hand, when the Israelis were killing civilians from women and children, either through car bombs as in Jaffa, Haifa and elsewhere. Or what is worse than that, when the Zionist organizations massacred Palestinian villagers to scare them, deport them and rob their lands, what was your stance then?
Bin Laden Speech: This shows how you dealt with (Menachem) Begin. Begin was the leader of one of those oppressive Zionist groups. Begin is butcher of the Deir Yassin massacre. Begin cut open the bellies of the pregnant women in the Deir Yassin massacre. Is there terrorism more outrageous than this? Isn't this the ultimate crime and the abyss of decadence?
Analyst Comment: There is no evidence to support the accusation that Begin cut open the bellies of pregnant Arab women. This is part of the fear mongering that allows Bin Laden to continuously portray the Israeli people as monsters. UBL’s technique is used by hate groups to dehumanize the target and elevate themselves over the ones being hated.
Bin Laden Speech: How can a man kill a woman villager that doesn't know how to fight and has nothing to do with him, and how about cutting her belly open just because she was pregnant. A vision of such a horrible crime blows minds and is unbelievable if not for the evidence and the documents that confirm it. There are even some Israelis who are proud of it, and they say if it wasn't for the massacre of Deir Yassin, the Palestinians would not have ran away and left their lands for them.
Bin Laden Speech: What was the stance of the West on what Begin did? Instead of being punished for those crimes, he was recognized as a Prime Minister. That wasn't enough for them; they even presented him with the Nobel Peace Prize. Alas for the injustice and aggression, Alas for the cheap, innocent blood, Alas for the cruelty and brutality. The massacres didn't stop after Deir Yassin but they continued.
Analyst Comment: The facts surrounding the massacre at Deir Yassin have always been hotly contested. In 2005, by Francisco Gil-White wrote, “The 1998 BBC TV series, Israel and the Arabs: the 50 year Conflict, documented that Arab Higher Committee officials Hazem Nusseibeh and Hussein Khalidi falsified facts [about Deir Yassin] and originated, for propaganda purposes, charges of rape.” Gil-White continues with, “Contrary to claims from Arab propagandists at the time and some since, no evidence has ever been produced that any women were raped. On the contrary, every villager ever interviewed has denied these allegations. Like many of the claims, this was a deliberate propaganda ploy, but one that backfired. Hazam Nusseibi, who worked for the Palestine Broadcasting Service in 1948, admitted being told by Hussein Khalidi, a Palestinian Arab leader, to fabricate the atrocity claims. Abu Mahmud, a Deir Yassin resident in 1948 told Khalidi 'there was no rape,' but Khalidi replied, 'We have to say this, so the Arab armies will come to liberate Palestine from the Jews.' Nusseibeh told the BBC 50 years later, 'this was our biggest mistake. We did not realize how our people would react. As soon as they heard that women had been raped at Deir Yassin, Palestinians fled in terror.”
Bin Laden Speech: Here we are living the massacre of Gaza today. It is happening in front of the eyes of the whole world. One and a half million individual under the deadly siege and they are facing slow death because of poor nutrition and scarcity of medicine.
Analyst Comment: In this particular paragraph UBL uses the term “we are living” to try and note the shared situation with Palestine and his own life. How does a Saudi Arabian with a fortune of $300 million have the audacity to compare his life to a Palestinian? Perhaps this should be explored by the Palestinian people when they look to this particular savior.
Bin Laden Speech: And here we see, your politicians are forcing Egypt's ruler to lock down the embargo on them to choke the feeble and most of them are women and children.
Bin Laden Speech: So tell me, what is the difference between your contemporary thinking and the values of Haman (one of pharaoh's attendants) in the first age of ignorance when he supported Pharaoh's wish to kill the children of Israel in Egypt?
Bin Laden Speech: At the end, the one who is defending his children cannot be blamed, neither the one who revolts against Pharaoh's oppressive policies.
Bin Laden Speech: We will continue, God willing, the fight, against the Israelis and their allies, to impose justice, to be fair to the ones who were mistreated, and we will not abandon one inch of Palestine, God willing, as long as there is one truthful Muslim man left in this world. Whoever plants thorns will not harvest grapes. Peace be upon those who follow the guidance.
Conclusion
Analyst Comment: UBL continues to use his leap of faith to tie the struggle against the “Israelis and their allies” together in order to show that his fight against the “far enemy” (America) is a fight against the Jews as well. Given what we now know, there is no evidence that demonstrates a commitment to the Palestinians. In fact, Zawahiri blasted the Palestinians and their leaders as not being true keepers of the true Islamic vision.
One should not discount UBL’s influence over the common man as his speeches tend to be spread at the tactical street level and our own counter-information campaign only plays to the strategic level. There needs to be more exposure of Bin Laden and AQ as self-interested terrorists who pay lip service to the Palestinian cause without offering any real assistance.
As predicted in an earlier NGIA report, Analysis of the Zawahiri Question and Answer Session, a rift is starting to reveal itself within AQ’s leadership. UBL and Zawahiri are now offering competing visions as each tries to entice the Ummah. Zawahiri is preoccupied with the destruction of the Egyptian government while his boss attempts to expand AQ’s horizons to include the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Expect Zawahiri to put out a message that further denigrates the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah. Expect Bin Laden to continue to change his vision as he tries to stimulate the masses to support his goals.
Introduction
Egyptian doctor Ayman al-Zawahiri released the first response to his global town hall meeting in which he invited the world to ask him questions. Of course, the self-promoting Jihadi used the opportunity to mention that his responses took longer than expected because of his exhausting work on his new book “Exoneration.” Instead of answering all the inquiries, the good doctor cherry-picked from among the submissions. This tactic allowed him to avoid queries that question the strategic effectiveness of his organization, Al-Qa’ida.
Questions and Answers
The first question that Zawahiri tackles involves the killing of innocents in Baghdad, Morocco and Algeria. Zawahiri responds that we (the Jihadis) have not killed innocents in any of those countries. He also uses this question to point out that he discusses this in his book (another self-promotion). In just the country of Iraq, the body count is anywhere from 82,625 to 90,149 Iraqi civilian casualties and Al-Qa’ida claims to be blameless. Let us not forget that Zarqawi declared war on the Shi’a apostates of Iraq. The Egyptian states that “were we insane killers of innocents…it would be possible to kill thousands in the crowded markets.” This statement damns Al-Qa’ida as insane because of their use of mentally handicapped women in a Baghdad pet market explosion. This must also explain the Jihadis mentality on the bombing of the commuter trains in Morocco. Instead the demented doctor says that the Americans, the Jews, the Russians and the French are the killers of the innocent. How many countries has AQ liberated?
Zawahiri uses Usama bin Laden’s (UBL) latest speech to point out that Western enemies employ Muslims as human shields. Yet AQ still does not fight Coalition Forces directly in Afghanistan, Iraq or anywhere else in the world. One of the few times Al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI) attacked U.S. forces directly, they suffered a 97% casualty rate. The reason they strike when the enemy is among Muslims is because of the chaos that is created when the western forces stop to aid the innocents who are wounded or dying.
UBL and Zawahiri promise to strike Israel as soon as possible. The two of them have yet to address why UBL changed Azzam’s plan for sending AQ to Palestine after the Azzam assassination.The claim by the AQ leadership is that their attacks against England, Spain, Australia and France are roundabout attacks on Israel. So, the road to Jerusalem goes through Paris?
The second question involves Al-Qa’ida in the Countries of the Islamic Maghreb (AQCIM) and the simultaneous December 11 bombings in Algeria. The attacks targeted UN and Algerian government offices which AQCIM claims are legitimate targets based on the actions of the Algerian government. Remember this is the same Algerian government that fought and gained independence from France. Interestingly, UBL’s deputy claims that Hezbollah ensures the safety of the Crusaders in Muslim lands. This comment by Zawahiri may be an indicator of how he wants the global Islamic revolution to be conducted without the support of the Iranians. This is certainly at odds with the vision of UBL who tried to curtail the sectarian violence that was attributed to Zarqawi when he ran the AQ franchise in Iraq.
The third question offers the Egyptian another opportunity to promote his book. Zawahiri, in answering a second question about the actions of AQCIM, uses the defense of “He Said, She Said” when he unquestioningly accepts the AQ fighter’s version of events. In this answer he furthers his criticism of Hamas. The second in command of AQ accuses Hamas of abandoning the fight in Chechnya and promoting secularism. Zawahiri differentiates between the leaders of Hamas and its fighters, criticizing the first and praising the second.
Part of the fourth question deals with a book by Shaykh Doctor Fadl who considers the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) to be unbelievers. This of course riles Zawahiri as the Egyptian Islamic Group, which he headed, is an offshoot of the MB. Zawahiri and members of the al-Jihad Group rewrote the book making the “appropriate changes.” This exemplifies two pillars of AQ’s modus operandi; never question leadership’s motives and use revisionist interpretations of previous works to justify the group’s current ideology.
The View on Iran and Its Organizations
When asked about Iran he refers to an interview he gave called “A Review of Events.” In the interview Zawahiri accuses Iran of betraying Muslims and dismisses the Shi’a militia in Iraq as carrying the “mark of shame in the history of Islam, and in fact in the history of humankind.” He demonstrates the collusion of Iran and America with statements like, “all of a sudden, we discovered Iran collaborating with America in its invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq” and “meanwhile, in Iraq, Iran struck a deal with the Americans before they entered Iraq to divide up Iraq.” Zawahiri also claims that Rafsanjani has declared that Iran does not seek to destroy Israel. To refute this claim, one has only to look at any of the recent pronouncements by the Iranian leadership:
"If a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with the arms Israel has in possession, the strategy of colonialism would face a stalemate because application of an atomic bomb would not leave any thing in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world", Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani told the crowd at the traditional Friday prayers in Tehran.
He also expanded his criticisms of other terrorist movements by lashing out at Hezbollah for taking part in the political process. Zawahiri, in a previous interview, says that Hezbollah’s master, Iran, has stabbed the Ummah in the back and that all Muslims will not forget this treachery. This again indicates a possible policy division within AQ’s leadership on the notion of Sunni-Shi’a cooperation.
In another answer Zawahiri says that Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, welcomes international Crusaders. The mere fact that Iran is part of the UN is the reason the doctor designates the leadership of Iran as criminals. Why is Zawahiri anti-UN? Because the UN charter says that all members will respect one another and Israel is a charter member. For a fifth time, Zawahiri pushes the self-promotion button when he mentions his book in answer to a question. When asked about Egypt, Zawahiri uses the terms corrupt and treasonous to describe the government. Zawahiri has always wanted to restart the jihad in his birthplace. Despite his desire to bring the jihad to Egypt, Zawahiri again fails to provide a “Milestone” in the form of a timeframe.
The Continued Answers
The doctor also points out in another answer that Jihad is not just the physical confrontations in Somalia, Iraq, Algeria or Afghanistan. Followers are asked to provide money, support, information and opinions which can help the fighters. AQ reveals a particularly acute need in their IT component as Zawahiri asks for those who can master the techniques of the Jihadi information campaign and the modern media to lend a hand.
Zawahiri promotes his book a sixth and seventh time in response to questions about going to jihad. The doctor mentions that the Salafi call is one that is truthful. Any Muslim security forces like the State Security Service of Egypt should be considered infidels. AQ goes on to warn the Awakening Councils of Iraq that they will be either ousted, humiliated or both. He turns his attention to his homeland yet again, but this time promotes a previous book, before making the eighth pitch for his new musings. America is to blame for the defeat of the Egyptian Jihad, a.k.a. the MB, and that is why they struck at America. Let us not forget that the Egyptian jihad started in 1928 and their biggest mistake, which ultimately led to their downfall, was the 1981 assassination of Sadat. Sadat’s death was his reward for releasing the jailed MB members. It only took the MB 21 years to get revenge on America for the breakup of their group.
The seventh answer affords him the opportunity to promote two of his previous works in addition to making his ninth appeal for the new manuscript. It is hard to imagine Zawahiri answering a question without trying to peddle his material to the public. The blame shifts back to America as the reason for why Mubarak is the current President of Egypt. Did they forget that they assassinated Sadat which led to the ascendancy of Mubarak? Zawahiri finally cuts loose on Egypt when he declares the officers of the State Security apparatus to be infidels who can be targeted and killed. What is the religious makeup of the Egyptians in the State Security? So killing Muslims is legal because Zawahiri ties this to a Fatwa which dealt with the Mongols? Question nine allows for the third mention of previous works and the tenth dropping of the new book title.
The tenth question deals with the aftermath of the U.S. pulling out of Iraq. Zawahiri expects the Shiite militias to fail in their fight with the AQ forces. He again makes the inference that the Shi’as are only strong because of the American presence and he will make Iraq the new battlefield against these followers, even if Iran stays involved. If America and Iran engage each other, the AQ forces will deal with the victor if there is one. It is interesting to note that he calls this the “Jihadi awakening.” If we refer to the AQ master plan, they are only off by eight years. When asked about the future, Zawahiri promotes his books again with a fourth mention of previous titles and the eleventh mention of Exoneration. This time he also alludes to the fact that the Jihadi plans for Saudi Arabia are the same as for Egypt. The next answer says that the Saudi regime has been sentenced to termination. This is the reason why Saudi Arabia has to take a serious look at the spread of their Salafist message and how that has now come home to roost.
Another question is asked about Egypt and revolves around the Coptic Christians. Instead of answering, he refers the inquirer to his new book and answers another part with the same reference bringing his self-promotion numbers up to thirteen. Zawahiri believes that Egypt is nothing more than a service institution of the U.S. military and drops his fourteenth reference to his new book. The Egyptian points out that Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood have lost their way and only AQ is on the true path of Islam. Again, the AQ leader tries to placate the critics of his forces not participating in Israel and the struggle of Palestine by ensuring the people that they will soon be on their way.
When Zawahiri is asked about AQ’s methodology, he refers to the Koran, the Sunnah and the Ummah predecessors (of course only the ones that agree with them). The perceived interconnectedness between the west, Israel, and Arab governments is why AQ feels free to attack any civilian targets. Basically, they will attack any soft target, anywhere, anytime. Zawahiri wants to create a domino effect by taking over an “apostate” country and moving from one territory to the next.
To the next question, Zawahiri’s only response is to promote his previous works for the fifth time. When asked about Hamas, he reiterates that he only criticizes the leadership. Throughout his diatribe, Zawahiri blasts Hamas and Fatah for agreeing to the Makka Accord. Then he drops his fourteenth plug for the new book. Another answer reveals why AQ has not joined the Palestinian cause. AQ believes that it is the only group that does not compromise its Islamic views. AQ is the only group that should be joined because they have a clear doctrine and follow the correct ideology and methodology.
The Missed Strategic Question
One of the questions that was not answered is, “what happened to Al-Qa’ida’s strategy for taking over the world?” The global jihad movement should ask this type of question of their leaders if they fail to meet their short and long term goals. Sayyid Qutb, one of the theological godfathers of the jihadi movement, released a seminal publication titled “Milestones.” Perhaps Zawahiri should release a book entitled “Goalposts, That May Or May Not Be Met - Check Back Later”.
Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein told SPIEGEL Online in 2005 that Al-Qa’ida had a plan to reestablish the Caliphate in seven phases.The terrorist group’s plan to take over the world would happen in the following order:
2000 – 2003 “The Awakening Phase” in which al-Qa’ida would provoke the West (via 9/11) to declare war on the Islamic world. This act would wake up the Muslim Ummah to the threat from the West.
2004 – 2006 “The Opening Eyes Phase” in which al-Qa’ida would become a social movement and experience a huge recruitment drive. Iraq would be the operational center for their army of Jihadis.
2007 – 2010 “The Arising and Standing Up Phase” which will focus on Syria, Turkey, Jordan and Israel. The attack on Israel will be done with the hope of becoming a formally recognized organization with political clout.
2010 – 2013 “The Unification Phase” which will be aimed at the collapse of the near enemy (the Middle Eastern) governments. Al-Qa’ida will also focus on disrupting the world’s economy with attacks on oil suppliers.
2013 – 2016 “The Caliphate Rising Phase” in which Al-Qa’ida will be able to declare a Caliphate due to the loss of US influence over the Middle East and the powerlessness of Israel.
2016 – 2018 “The Total Confrontation Phase” in which the empowered Caliphate will use its Islamic Army to fight the unbelievers.
2018 – 2020 “The Definitive Victory Phase” in which the world “unbelievers” will be defeated after a two year war by a unified Muslim army of 1.5 billion men.
Conclusion
It is very evident that there is a growing rift between the leadership of Al-Qa’ida concerning the direction of the group. The New York times reports that UBL sought out the Iranians throughout the 1990s. There was a meeting in the mid-1990s where the Iranians called for a halt to the fighting between Islamist-terrorist groups in order to forge greater cooperation against the West. UBL represented Sunni terrorists during the meeting. This is the reason that AQ finds sanctuary in Iran where some of their leadership is still under “supposed” house arrest. UBL did not welcome the sectarian violence that gripped Iraq under Zarqawi’s leadership. UBL is a uniter and Zawahiri has called out all the other terrorist groups because he seeks the ascendancy of AQ in the terrorist pyramid. This has undoubtedly led to a fundamental schism in AQ. AQ is probably fractured into two camps over the notion as to whether the Shiites are apostates or allies. One wonders whether UBL will become a martyr due to a mysterious bomb like his former mentor Abdullah Azzam? Or will Zawahiri wait for the sick UBL to pass naturally before the doctor takes control of AQ?
Expect AQCIM to strike at any soft targets. Western travelers and interests will be of particular value to AQCIM as they crave the media attention that has usually only been reserved for AQ prime. Zawahiri and bin Laden will have to keep justifying the actions of AQCIM as they have no operational control over that franchise. AQ can only sit back and lay claim to the deeds of AQCIM without being able to direct its activities. AQCIM will present many problems to the establishment of AFRICOM and assume the new battlefront of the war on terrorism as the security situation continues to degrades. The biggest expectation is for an AQCIM religious leader to emerge and eventually challenge UBL and Zawahiri for control of AQ.
Zawahiri has always wants to make the “treacherous” Egyptian government pay for the alleged sin of deviating from Islam. Expect the doctor to step up his propaganda campaign against the Egyptians with more responses dedicated to the subject of Egyptian jihad in Part 2 of his town hall. When Zawahiri gains total control of AQ, expect direct attacks from the organization in Egypt. AQ will continue to give lip service to the Palestinian cause and attempt to justify fighting outside of the Jewish nation as a theoretical mean of supporting the Palestinians. Unless the Palestinians roll out the red carpet and give total control of their movement to the world’s most self-promoting terrorist group, one should not expect any meaningful AQ operations in Israel.
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Executive Summary Contrary to the accepted conventional analysis, the strength of Al-Qa’ida (AQ) is based on the organization’s information operations and not on their ability to conduct terrorist attacks. A deluge of news features, documentaries, articles, reports and books has shaped our understanding, although not always accurate, of AQ and UBL. What do we really know about AQ? Examining the birth of AQ and their claimed “success” in the Soviet-Mujahideen conflict provides a template through which to view other AQ claims and pronouncements. UBL claimed that 9/11 was the “tip of the spear” in the jihad against America. However, there have been no successful AQ attacks on America since that fateful day. Has there been a change of focus for AQ? Does AQ realistically possess the capability to carry out a major attack on American soil? Zarqawi was drawing all the resources from AQ led by UBL to Iraq. When Zarqawi was taken out in an air strike, U.S. officials said it was done with help from an AQ insider. With UBL and Zawahiri losing control of their organization, who would benefit the most from the death of Zarqawi? Would UBL have become the most prominent Jihadi if not for the timely death of Azzam? At one time AQ focused on the far enemy, this has now seemed to change when AQ told the people of Pakistan to rise up against the Musharaf government. We should have expected an overthrow immediately after the AQ message. Instead AQ sent a lone child suicide bomber to eliminate Bhutto. Where has AQ pulled off a major attack as threatened? UBL and his group love to take credit for many of the terrorist operations but one has to critically look to see how involved AQ actually is in these operations.
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Executive Summary
New collection capabilities mandate new analysis capabilities to support the overall mission. Traditional Analysis involves the analyst assembling the “big picture” for the decision maker. Analysis must change and occur at all mission levels. Unfortunately, we find that analysts are usually unprepared for this new mission of real time intelligence support. This new focus of analysis is at the core of Operational Analysis where the analyst is the fulcrum point within the organization. In particular, the analyst must pay particular attention to supporting current collection efforts. Delving even deeper into the collection effort, the analyst must understand the intricacies of the Human Intelligence spectrum of operations. The analyst has to identify intelligence gaps, thereby stimulating questions for the interrogator, debriefer or overt collectors. With access to the rest of the Intelligence Community, the analyst can recommend other intelligence collection operations to be used for mission success. The analyst is well placed to understand the environment, the collector mission and the current situation to provide the Operational Analysis support. The analyst can also help direct targeting, surveillance, Force Protection measures, Operational Security and other combat and HUMINT operations. This new paradigm for infusing the analyst in to the entire HUMINT spectrum admittedly places the analyst between the operational and intelligence realms.
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Executive Summary The burning problem facing law enforcement and the intelligence community is how to successfully interview suspected terrorists. One school of thought reasons that one has to know the backgrounds and ideologies of the terrorists and their organizations. This is an intricate problem given the multitude of groups and individuals claiming to be terrorists. The Group Immersion Dynamics Model provides a systemic approach on the seven personal stages the individual moves through as a group member. This helps the interviewer identify how the terrorist transforms from a self-identity to a group-adopted identity in relation to each stage. Successfully implementing this invasive technique allows the investigator to obtain information and intelligence on the group from the individual’s perspective. Individuals join groups for various reasons including a psychological sense of fulfillment, glory, purpose and belonging among others. The psychopathology of hate groups also applies to terrorist groups. The transformation takes time as the individual accepts the group norms, values and beliefs as their own. The group supplants the social relationships of the individual by becoming the “family and friends.” The intensity of the feelings associated with the group is deeper because of the like mindset and shared beliefs of the group members. The Personal Immersion Pyramid (PIP) closely mirrors the organizational structure of terrorist groups in which the base represents the greatest numbers of members. While the group will work hard to change an individual-centric view into a group-centric view, the real transformation only occurs at a personal level. The seven levels of the pyramid are the True Believers, Believers, Indoctrinated, Rivergrass, Participants, Supporters, and Sympathizers. There are four ways to counter the identity-focus from the group mindset to the individual, they are the Counter-Immersion Technique, Role Identification Technique, the Identity Pronoun Scale Reversal Technique and the Accomplishment/Failure Technique.
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